Monthly INsync Chit Chat December 2024
I Think They Look Crazy Cool… [by David Cox]
When we were coming back from our year-end school event for my two middle sons, Asha (17) and Emry (14), attend Wilson Hill Academy in Texas, we spotted a Tesla Cybertruck driving the other way and were giddy with excitement! Emry is a car and truck enthusiast, and I can always count on him to spot new models, colours, and vehicles of interest. He said he had recently driven by the Tesla dealership in Waterloo and seen a whole row of Cybertrucks and he had my attention! We decided we’d head down there and see if we could test drive one and check out these inventions, which I think all of you would have to admit sure are different in structure and styling! We showed up and managed to see a few, but the demo one is booked weeks in advance, so we instead tried out a Model Y and returned to drive the Cybertruck soon!
Several months back, in the June 2024 chit chat https://www.financiallyinsync.com/we- communicate/our-latest-thoughts/2024/06/05/monthly-insync-chit-chat-june-2024, I showed how the price of housing in Canada had actually fallen over time, not in dollar terms, but in bitcoin terms. I thought immediately of how this applies in the same way for the Cybertruck. In early 2022, in Canada, it would have cost approximately 5 bitcoins to purchase one, and at the recent bitcoin highs a week ago, it would “only” cost a Canadian 1 bitcoin to buy! Interesting, right!?
News – Some That You’ve Heard, Most That You Haven’t [by David Cox]
Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election with overwhelming support, and the Republicans also win a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Trump taps Musk to lead a “Department of Government Efficiency” with Ramaswamy. Canada’s Premiers urge Trudeau to strengthen border security after Trump tariff threat. El Salvador owes 80 million to the IMF, and if bitcoin reaches $100K U.S., they will be able to pay back the IMF and owe nothing. Dr. John Campbell, a renowned doctor and daily YouTuber (since COVID started), gets a red mark from the censors at Google for saying a few words that contradict the WHO. U.S. cable ratings are in the toilet and layoffs surge after the election as listeners appear to have lost trust. Biden authorizes Ukraine to use long-range U.S. missiles in Russia. Biden approves antipersonnel mines for Ukraine, undoing his own policy. [Ed note: Sure seems crazy to see decision that provokes World War 3 being done by a sitting duck President soon to be out of office?!?] California makes it illegal to ask voters to show ID in any election. Australia’s social media ban for under 16s to become law.
Things We Recommend [by David Cox]
If you have déjà vu when you read this, sorry, I couldn’t resist. Do you handwrite a lot of notes and notes like I do? I’ve always had folders full of papers (and papers not in files!) surrounding me, and it’s hard to keep them organized until I saw the “Remarkable.” A writing tablet, specifically designed for writing. That’s right: no internet, no notifications, no distractions, just my notebooks and notes. I first saw one at a conference about 18 months ago and have now used mine for a year (give or take).
I don’t like to go anywhere without it, and it makes tagging notes a breeze and keeps me much more organized than I can ever claim to be (full disclosure: I am not yet organized enough, though!). And, for those monthly research reports that I like to read through thick and thin, bull market and bear market (i.e., Martin Pring’s “Pring Intermarket Review,” Chris MacIntosh’s “The Insider,” Lyn Alden’s Bi-Weekly Premium, or Mark Jeftovic’s “The Bitcoin Capitalist”), I can upload the PDFs to my Remarkable and then highlight, flag, and make notes that can be easily found later, requiring further digging, research, or reference. Anyways, it’s a great device, and the fact that it’s not full of distractions and emails and pop-ups makes it what it really is. They said it can also convert handwriting into text, but for those that have seen my handwriting, that’s simply not a feature accessible to me (people have told me I should have been a doctor).
Book Corner [by David Cox]
How boring for a book review column; isn’t this the same book as last month!? I told you Volume One was good, and this is Volume Two! The first was so good, I needed to jump right into the second one, and it didn’t disappoint.
Again, these books are a compilation of past talks and speeches by Andreas Antonopoulos, and there is so much to take in (yes, even for those not as geeky as me). Understanding the implications of blockchain and how these technologies can and will be used in society is wide-ranging, and Antonopoulos is a renowned expert for good reason. Have I started Volume Three yet? No, but I’m looking forward to it already!
What Are We Buying? Selling? Holding… [by David Cox]
Ely Lilly ($LLY) is a mega-cap, $747 billion drug manufacturer, and it’s a stock that meets the screen for our #INsyncUniverse, which means it has outperformed the S&P 500 on a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 10-year time frame. But my belief is that all stocks go through periods of uptrend, followed by downtrend, and those time periods can be long-lasting. Our clients have held Eli Lilly stock since the second half of 2022 and rode the uptrend, which was solid. Even more impressive is realizing that when you stand back and zoom out, we see that the stock rallied +730.8% from the 2020 COVID lows. So, has something changed?
Yes, multiple things have changed, and as I constantly seek to keep and have that important #marketpulse in the management of client assets, the health-care sector has been weakening steadily for months. When that happens, it is possible for the strongest stocks, the real leaders, to keep going and buck the trend, so to speak, but $LLY has changed character as of late. I can appreciate that to some, it still seems to be going from the lower left to the upper right, defining an uptrend, but I’ll point out (red circle) that we now have a lower low on the chart and a close below the (green) 34-week moving average, which tends to sit as a useful, big-picture way to sense and acknowledge weakness in our large-cap trend-following stocks. The slope of that average is even more important, and if you look closely, it has rolled over. Aggressive clients sold earlier, as distribution off the top was visible, and the more long-term-oriented clients too have now pushed sell, triggering gains, and moved on to stocks that don’t show such weakening characteristics. All part of actively managing a portfolio!
Source: Optuma
* * as at November 27, 2024
Lifestyles to Consider [by Criselle Tung]
I recently went to Bohol, Philippines, and it was nothing short of amazing. I didn’t realize how much I needed that break until I was surrounded by the palm trees, white sand, and turquoise water.
The trip was a powerful reminder that sometimes the most productive thing you can do is simply pause. It’s easy to get caught up in the daily grind, but stepping back can be incredibly refreshing. During my time away, I chose to disconnect by turning off my phone roaming and fully immersing myself in the moment. Have you ever thought about when you last truly enjoyed a walk? Or when you last savoured the aroma of your coffee before gulping it down? When was the last time you sincerely smiled at a stranger beside you? The sound of the waves reminded me to slow down and be present. It created a calming rhythm that mirrors the natural flow of life. Just as the ocean moves steadily and without haste, it reinforces the value of pausing and reflecting for greater clarity and perspective.
As we dive into the holiday season, the festive atmosphere and crisp winter air remind us to slow down, be present, and appreciate the little things. Taking a moment to pause and reflect can boost your productivity and well-being. Investing in yourself, even briefly, is key to happiness and effectiveness.
How’s the (Bigger Picture) Market? [by David Cox]
Those expecting major volatility for the stock markets heading into the U.S. election were left disappointed as the uptrend was in place before the results were announced and has continued afterwards. The market acted very well heading into the U.S. election and has continued to trend upwards since the election. Admittedly, there have been some rotational changes (more on this in the “Chart of the Month” below), but the uptrend in the S&P 500 continues. Yes, those bearish divergences from a longer-term momentum standpoint do continue to exist and are building, but price remains the most important indicator on the chart.
We can all agree it’s been a strong period for stock markets (and as such for our investments!) but based on the chart, I will continue to expect more to come. A trend in motion stays in motion until…
Source: Optuma
* * * as at November 27, 2024
Market Summary and Trend of “All Assets” [by David Cox]
When we look at the price movements that happened after the election, it would be impossible not to point out Bitcoin, which broke out to new highs on U.S. election night (around $74,000 U.S./bitcoin) and then surged right up to the $99,000K+ level in recent weeks as enthusiasm grew, institutional demand increased, and the speculation about a new incoming U.S. government adopting and/or implementing some type of Bitcoin strategic reserve (as Trump & RFK discussed at the July ’24 Nashville Bitcoin Conference). We’ll see what actually happens. And either way, we’ll continue to follow the short, intermediate and long-term trends of all the assets in the table below and use relative strength to guide your investment portfolios into the assets, sectors, and stocks that offer opportunities, all while managing risk (of course!).
Source: Optuma
* * * * as at November 27, 2024
We All Need to Keep Learning! – [by David Cox]
As I listen to my kids and see the depth of their knowledge, I’m often left feeling rather ignorant (don’t worry, I can go far more deeply than they can on any investing, finance, or economic topic) when it comes to history. Understanding the world through the lens of history, its events, and its moments is without question helpful, engaging, and certainly something any well-rounded person would appreciate knowing more about. So, what am I doing?
I told Chat GPT, that I wanted to become more knowledgeable with respect to history. I told it to act like a history expert and for it to create a daily history lesson, not in one particular time frame, but from all over history, and to provide me a short read of 6-8 paragraphs designed to give me enough knowledge to perhaps chime in at my next cocktail party if the topic were to come up. It’s pretty cool. And so easy and honestly remarkable (no pun intended) that these kinds of tools exist. It’s one thing to google search a topic or event; it’s another thing entirely to be provided a curated lesson by an expert historian each day. Artificial intelligence will have uses that go far beyond our imaginations, and I’m certainly not one to not try to embrace the tools that we have in front of us.
Off to read my daily history lesson entitled “The Haitian Revolution – The World’s First Successful Slave Rebellion”….
One UPtrend, One DOWNtrend [by David Cox]
I’m a big fan of trying to stop all of us from doing what we intuitively want to do, and that is make sense of something, particularly as it relates to our investments. Case in point, if I showed you the strong uptrend in Dollarama, many would be likely to point out that yep, that makes sense because the cost of living has gone up in price and the economy is slowing, so dollar stores should benefit. But then I show you DollarTree, the same type of business, but a different stock, and we see a different trajectory, in this case a falling downtrend. I could have also shown you another large player, Dollar General, which is also falling. Markets don’t always make sense. No one says they have to. In fact, I’d encourage all of us to remember that quite often we’ll miss the opportunity to buy (and miss the opportunity to sell) when the market is speaking if we hold on to our beliefs and our pursuit of being right and/or having it all make sense.
Source: Optuma
* * * * as at November 27, 2024
A Service You Don’t (Maybe?) Know About [by Donald Daggett]
If you are (were) a working Canadian, you (and your employer) are contributing (contributed) to the Canada Pension Plan.
Deciding when to start drawing your CPP retirement benefit involves a number of factors, and the most influential factor is your age. Your fully defined retirement age upon which your pension is based is age 65.
You can begin drawing CPP benefits as early as age 60. Drawing at age 60 will reduce the income you are eligible to receive. Your benefit will be reduced by 0.60% per month that you draw prior to age 65. You can also delay receiving the benefits up to age 70. In this case, you will receive an increased benefit. Your benefit will increase by 0.70% per month that you delay receiving your benefit. The maximum pension benefit that you receive, at any eligible age, will be a function of your maximum annual pension contributions as well as the number of years worked.
Since each individual’s situation is unique, it is important that you take into consideration other factors (assets, liabilities, other retirement resources) in order to maximize your CPP retirement benefit. Our team at “Financially INsync” via Raymond James Financial Planning Ltd. (a wholly owned subsidiary of Raymond James Limited) has the experience and tools to assist you in maximizing your total retirement benefits. Please contact us directly with any questions you may have!
We Like Fundamentals Too! [by David Cox]
Doximity is one of the fallen IPOs that arrived in 2021 (after growth stocks had already peaked), and while it generated some initial enthusiasm, it didn’t last long and started to suffer, and that suffering was dramatic as the stock plummeted -81.6% from its ’21 highs to its lows earlier this year.
With four quarters of rising sponsorship and at a quick glance, what I call attractive fundamentals, it’s on my radar. Double-digit sales and earnings growth is what I like to see, and investors have taken notice (again) in the stock. It can be weird to think that the company itself, which is in the business of offering cloud-based solutions for medical professionals, can operate day to day doing whatever it is they’re doing, and the stock can at the same time go about its uptrend or downtrend in even deviating fashion.
Source: MarketSurge
* * * * as of November 27, 2024
If we look at the daily chart in the past two years, I point out the first green circle and early buy point, which happened as investors cheered the earnings report and demand started to arrive, pushing prices to the highest levels in more than a year. Then, a subsequent earnings report caused another big gap up and price move, which then pulled back into the second green circle. Our clients know that I do like to buy “pullbacks against” and we have nibbled away right near that line in the sand that can be used to manage risk. We’ll see what happens!
Source: Optuma
* * as at November 27, 2024
Chart of the Month [by David Cox]
There has been some rotation since Trump won the U.S. election, and most notably, strong performance from financial ($XLF) and discretionary ($XLY) stocks, which have benefitted much more than the market since November 5th. On the other hand, the health care stocks ($XLV) have sold off considerably.
This is an Optuma “bubble chart,” and on the x-axis (left to right), we have the % return since November 5th (post-election) vs. the y-axis (up and down), which is the 3-month relative performance against the market. Essentially, in the past quarter, the sectors that have underperformed the S&P 500 itself are energy, technology, real estate, consumer staples, materials, and health care. There is lots to see in these kinds of charts, and I do regularly like to look at them myself!
Source: Optuma
* * as at November 27, 2024
Social Media and Our Website [by David Cox]
Thanks again for all the feedback that you provided after reading my Bitcoin article. Many had not found an easy way to learn more about this revolutionary technology that is in motion, and I will strive to continue to provide more practical insights in the future!
If you missed the article “Bitcoin for $400,” please, David you could find it on our website:
https://www.financiallyinsync.com/we-communicate/our-latest-thoughts/2024/10/24/bitcoin- for-400-please-david
I find that so many on “X” (formerly Twitter) are looking for the magic bullet, the be-all and end- all that solves all investment problems with one simple chart or formula. In my opinion, that doesn’t exist! The old proverb goes something like this: if you give a man a fish, you have fed him for a day, but if you teach him to fish, you have fed him for a lifetime. That was my goal for the two posts below, and yet so many miss the point, trying to point out how imperfectly such charts (visualizations of price!) are. I still enjoy sharing and trying to speak out loud about what I see and will keep doing so!
Upcoming Dates, Seminars, and Announcements [by David Cox]
What: Sage Planning Solutions (Podcast)
Where: Spotify/Apple/YouTube
When: I’ve been invited on in early December (TBD)
Who: I’m looking forward to chatting markets with Dominick Ruiz and his partners…
What: Our Team Re-Shape, Re-Tool & Re-Design!
Where: Financially INsync, Waterloo, ON
When: First Half of 2025
Who: Leaving you in some suspense… more announcements to come shortly!
What: The Launch of “The Pool”!
Where: Our Accounts
When: January 13, 2025
Who: All of our Clients (with Canadian domiciled assets)
What: Investing with IBD (Investor’s Business Daily) Podcast
Where: www.investors.com/Spotify/Apple/YouTube
When: January 16, 2025
Who: I’m thrilled to have been invited to speak with host Justin Nielsen!
I was in Collingwood this past month to attend the Raymond James (RJ) National Business Conference, and that is now the third conference I’ve attended since joining RJ in December 2022. I remain overly impressed at the commitment, the energy, and the organization’s focus on providing its clients (i.e., us advisors) with tools, technology, and support to be able to then, in turn, serve our clients in the best way possible. I honestly do not recall (ever) feeling so energized and enthusiastic after a periodic conference held by the old bank I used to work for.
Thanks for reading this far, and please don’t hesitate to offer comments, criticisms, or ideas to make this a more valuable publication. Thanks in advance!
Sincerely,
David Cox, CFA, CMT, FMA, FCSI, BMath
Senior Portfolio Manager, Wealth Advisor
Raymond James Ltd.
Phone: 519.883.6031
Unit 1 – 595 Parkside Drive | Waterloo, ON | N2L 0C7
david.cox@raymondjames.ca
www.financiallyinsync.com
@DavidCoxRJ
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