Monthly INsync Chit Chat February 2025
Seeking Some Work Life Balance… [by David Cox]
I’ll be the first to admit that the pace of life (at least mine!) can seem dizzying at times and it’s not easy to always fit in proper sleep, exercise, fresh air let alone non-work activities but I do believe it’s important for balance. As 2025 began, I decided to join a local pool league and am now a member of the Canadian Poolplayers Association, a subsidiary of the bigger American (APA) entity! On Thursday nights, I now frequent the “Break Room” in Waterloo and typically play an 8-ball and a 9-ball match.
On the first night, I felt the pressure being new to our team and the league, and I duffed a ball-in hand (and made other awful shots), making me feel more than embarrassed (I have high standards for myself!). Someone after my match (yes, I lost), actually asked me if I was new to pool!? Ouch. Growing up with a pool table in my parents’ basement, that was an easy no. I showed up more relaxed on week two, won both my matches and last night, won them again! The tables sure are different (more on this below in the “Artificial Intelligence -> Human Wisdom” section).
News – Some That You’ve Heard, Most That You Haven’t [by David Cox]
Staffing at Washington control was “not normal” before deadly DC crash. FAA’s diversity push includes focus on hiring people with severe intellectual disabilities. Biden issues preemptive pardons for Trump critics and Biden family members. JFK files to be finally released and declassified, 60-years after the JFK assassination. Trump announces 25% tariffs on Canada, but may not include oil. Justin Trudeau resigns (sort of) after fading popularity even among his own Liberal party. Trudeau prorogues Parliament leaving taxpayers paying for a government that is terminated in its current session.
Financially INsync | Raymond James Ltd.
Unit 1 – 595 Parkside Drive | Waterloo, ON | N2L 0C7 ï 519.883.6031 ï 519.883.6079
What Are We Buying? Selling? Holding… [by David Cox]
Marvell Technologies ($MRVL) was a recent, leading semiconductor stock that broke out of a base in the fall and was actionable. But as headlines about “DeepSeek” sparked a selloff in articificial intelligence and chip stocks (Nvidia posted a record $593 billion loss of market-cap in a single day), Marvell was caught in the same (and sudden) excess of supply and the stock was punished dropping -19.1% on January 27th (in concert with its peers). What did we do about it?
It was a recent addition to our stable of technology (which has been less of a stable in recent months, as technology stocks themselves have been suffering from relative strength and sector rotation) but as such, it gone thrown away (sold into the bloodbath). Cutting losses is essential and I don’t know (and you don’t know) what happens next. In recent days, many of these stocks have bounced some, but the selling pressure is quite evident. The volume (rightmost red circle) was the 2nd or 3rd biggest volume in the past year and it was an easy prune from our portfolio.
Remember, the only way to prevent big losses in an investment portfolio, is to take small losses!
Source: Optuma
* as at January 30th, 2025
Lifestyles to Consider! [by Criselle Tung]
With this freezing weather (in Southern Ontario), I can’t help but wonder of how much our daily choices impact both the environment and our wallets. Sustainability isn’t just about helping the planet — it’s also a smart way to save money. Small habits, just like compounding in investing, adds up over time.
Take food choices, for example. Buying local, seasonal produce isn’t just fresher and tastier — it also supports local farmers and cuts down on emissions from long-distance shipping. And when it comes to energy use, simple changes like switching to LED bulbs, sealing drafts, and lowering the thermostat while layering up can make a big difference on your heating bill.
Reducing waste is another easy win. Reusable bags, bottles, and containers save money in the long run by cutting down on single-use purchases and it also minimize plastic pollution. Even opting for digital receipts helps — less paper clutter and an easier way to track spending and to keep documents. And fashion? Choosing second-hand, upcycling, or supporting sustainable brands isn’t just trendy — it’s a smart financial and environmental move.
Sustainability isn’t just about “going green” — it’s about making choices that are good for both your budget and the planet. It’s a win-win! So, why not start with small changes that make a big impact?
Things We Recommend [by David Cox]
My daughter Eloise is 10, and one thing we do enjoy doing together on a Friday night after the boys go to youth (at church), is getting cozy, popping some popcorn, pouring some (club) soda and watching “When Calls the Heart”. It’s a western drama TV series about life in a small coal- mining town in Western Canada. It’s family friendly without the language and/or violence (well, there is the occasional RCMP Mountie apprehension of a thief or robber) that so much programming seems to always contain. We access the series via the Hallmark Channel (yep, an add on) that comes via Amazon Prime. I’m writing this on Friday morning and suspect tonight, I’ll be watching an episode or two!
Financially INsync | Raymond James Ltd.
Unit 1 – 595 Parkside Drive | Waterloo, ON | N2L 0C7 ï 519.883.6031 ï 519.883.6079
AllINsync: How Are We Exposed? [by David Cox]
With the recent launch of the “AllINsync” pool, an equity solution that combines our three main investment approaches (i.e., trend following, breakout buying and ETFs) we suddenly have an efficient and much more optimized vehicle to exposure our investment portfolios to the ever changing global investment markets and conditions. I’ll be working much more on the communication plans for sharing our strategy, our exposures and our progress, but I thought I’d at the very least show how we’re sitting as we round out January in early 2025. It’s been 11-days since the launch.
Source: Broadridge
* as at January 30th, 2025
How’s the (Bigger Picture) Market? [by David Cox]
As I have pointed out for many months, the uptrend continues (new highs in 2025 already) for U.S. stocks (and many stocks in general and an uptrend is an uptrend. While there are no shortage of headlines or narratives that can make investors question how (or why!?) the markets keep climbing, I can assure you, we will come out ahead if we accept that markets are much bigger than us. We don’t know more than the market, on the whole, and I firmly believe are much better suited to following along with, and analyzing demand and supply and staying on the right side, accepting that market conditions will always change.
Yes, the bearish divergence (lower panel on RSI(5) weekly below) is still in place and so it does allow us to at least acknowledge the potential for slowing momentum, we will still heed the trend in general, until it changes.
Source: Optuma
* as at January 30th, 2025
Artificial Intelligence -> Human Wisdom? [by David Cox]
I’m going to run this section as the technology focus, with artificial intelligence in focus, particularly using it in ways that perhaps you wouldn’t have thought possible. It’s also (selfishly) a motivator to ensure that I’m making progress and have something to share making me keeping pushing on these tools to demonstrate their capabilities. I hope you find it useful!
The first night I arrived at my new pool league, I immediately noticed that the tables were long! It turns out they’re 9 feet long, and I’m used to playing on a 7-foot long table. The more experienced on my team were quick to provide some pointers, but it’s not easy to make adjustments to your game, when you’re used to playing the way you do. So what did I do about it? I turned to ChatGPT and entered this prompt:
And of course, ChatGPT was able to guide me in a response that included an explanation of why the adjustment feels significant, necessary adjustments for cue ball control (including speed, English and spin), while offering a number of tips and some mental adjustment! I think I learned something!
Market Summary and Trend of “All Assets” [by David Cox]
We’re already a month into 2025, wow, and here we are again with some déjà vu from last year with Bitcoin, gold and silver up at the top of the leaderboards on our “all asset” list. As usual, I like to have a visual display, taken as regular input, to get a feel for the markets and keep that #marketpulse. I regularly tweet about these things online (you do follow me by now, on “X”, right? @DavidCoxRJ.
The short-term trend is the condition of the 8-day EMA (exponential moving average) vs. the 20- day EMA (if 8-day > 20-day, it’s green and “True” in the table below), the intermediate term, I define as the 20-day EMA vs. the 50-day SMA (simple moving average) and the long-term is the 13- week and 34-week EMAs. Relative strength can be identified via charts and also shows up by outperformance (i.e., bigger % gains in the table below).
Source: Optuma
* as at January 30th, 2025
What Are We Learning? “Understanding Our Options” [by David Cox]
We all like to have options when we, as consumers, look at the grocery shelves, shop in the car lot and/or build our investment portfolios. I’ve talked before about how commodity stocks in general can be volatile, choppy and hard to handle as investors. What are call options?
Call options can be purchased, and these options allow us to have the right (but not the obligation), to buy a certain stock at a certain future point in time at a future price. In the AllINsync pool, we can utilize these tools in portfolio construction in pursuit of risk-adjusted returns. Cameco ($CCO:TSX, $CCJ:US), the 2nd largest uranium producer in the world (and a Canadian company), is a messy, choppy stock and so in the early days of the pool, I thought a perfect candidate for an option strategy. We purchased slightly “out of the money” call option that expires in June 2025. By buying these options, we’re able to put a small amount of money on the table (the risk) and over the next 4-5 months, we can see if these uranium stocks are going to surge back to highs, or not. Far less impact on the portfolio overall, given the small outlay and risk taken (about 0.24% ~ 24bps). I look forward to sharing more about these options in future.
Source: Optuma
* as at January 30th, 2025
Chart of the Month [by David Cox]
Technology stocks are very important. Technology is a major driver of everything(!?!?) if you stop to think about it. But at ~30%+ of the S&P 500, it’s very impactful to the stock market in general. The chart below is the monthly (think zoomed out) chart of the SPDR Technology ($XLK) ETF and it is for sure going up (lower left to upper right) but as we’ve talked about many times here and in the weekly “Where Do We Investors Stand?” webinars, it’s been slowing and showing signs of wear and tear, both absolutely and relatively.
I like to lean in the direction of the MACD histogram (#MACDhist) and the monthly histogram has been declining for months, mean the momentum has been slowing. This shows up in many ways, but is but one tool that we technicians have at our disposable to gauge risk and return and make investment decisions. We’ll see that happens. Could it re-ignite itself for a new and strong up wave? Of course. Could it continue to slowly weaken, causing losses for late entrants or those with overweighted portfolios? Of course.
Source: Optuma
* as at January 30th, 2025
Social Media and Our Website [by David Cox]
With so much change happening at Financially INsync, it was time for a website tune-up (which led to my quick realization that more change is needed!) but we wanted to introduce our newest team member Brian Potter, who recently joined us, bring us back up to three on our team after Don retired last month. Have you been on our website in a while? Do you feel Financially INsync?
Did you catch my appearance of “Investing With IBD”, a show hosted by Justin Neilsen at Investors Business Daily? We had fun chatting markets and trying to discuss big-picture investing and cutting down the noise. I shared lots about our investment process here at Financially INsync and dug into some stocks that are in the #INsyncUniverse. You know, those robust, long-term leaders that have managed to outperform the S&P 500 on a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 10-year time frame? Investors often want the new shiny growth stock, yet some tried and true stocks have done something, for longer, that is worth exploring. You can check it out here!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojNsRthVPK0
Upcoming Dates, Seminars, and Announcements [by David Cox]
What: “The Biggest Bar Against: A Game Changer for Spotting Reversals”
Where: WEBINAR: Palm Beach Traders
When: February 11th, 2025 at 7pm
Who: I am speaking to a group of active investors based in Florida!
I am very appreciative if you taking the time to read this “Monthly INsync Chit Chat” and as I play with formats, sections and content, I always appreciate your feedback! Thanks in advance!
Sincerely,
David Cox, CFA, CMT, FMA, FCSI, BMath
Senior Portfolio Manager, Wealth Advisor
Raymond James Ltd.
Phone: 519.883.6031
Unit 1 – 595 Parkside Drive I Waterloo, ON I N2L 0C7
www.financiallyinsync.com
@DavidCoxRJ
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